August 2021

As we wait for the financial world to react to events while unsure of what theme or themes will predominate economic thought in the future, there are some strategies and tactics to keep in mind during tricky times. A popular endowment model strategy is rebalancing a portfolio. As different sections of a por tfolio gain value quickly, or slowly, or even regress, the original, and hopefully optimal, asset allocation percentages change to something different. At various times, perhaps annually, the increased percentages are sold down to their original allocation and the funds raised are reinvested in the decreased percentage assets, thereby rebalancing. As a tactic to make some investors comfortable with the risk profile of their portfolios, this works. However, one author points out that he has “yet to see a study that shows it improves your returns,” and in fact it sometimes can mean “missing out on big returns.”[1] 

With the pandemic subsiding and economic growth reaccelerating, a Bloomberg survey of economists expects US real GDP to grow a robust 6.6% this year and 4.1% next. The economy (as measured by real GDP) is expected to have surpassed its pre-pandemic peak in the second quarter of 2021. The S&P 500 Index returned a strong 14.4% through the first half of the year to close at a record high. Pent-up demand and federal stimulus funds have meant that demand for goods and services has recovered much faster than supply. Businesses can’t hire workers fast enough and they’re struggling with supply chain bottlenecks. Strong economic conditions drove the Consumer Price Index (CPI) up 5.4% year-over-year in June, following up 5.0% y/y in May. While many economists had been expecting some inflation, these inflation statistics were higher than most of them, including many Fed officials, anticipated.[1] The CPI excluding food and energy was up 4.5% y/y in June, reaching its highest level since 1991.

We’ve heard from our portfolio managers that some clients are asking about tax planning in an unsettled regulatory environment. News reports of changes to US tax laws cover a wide range of proposals — too many and at too early a stage to meaningfully discuss planning and tactics.