March 2025

The original idea behind the “Page One” article in our Quarterly Market Perspectives (QMP) was to explain why our clients should be at Woodstock and not some other investment firm. One of our portfolio managers, Tom Stakem, says he wants to read something that he can’t find elsewhere. A recent article in the WSJ described good opinion writing as “impressive with its enterprise, originality, passion, boldness, depth, flair or wit.”[1] We try. We also borrow ideas and attribute them extensively. We keep in mind the line often attributed to Oscar Wilde: “Plagiarism is the sincerest form of flattery.”

We began 2024 in a very different place—investors had expected slow growth, or like me, a recession. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for US gross domestic product (GDP) growth was about 1 percent. We expected federal spending would decline following the pandemic response stimulus, while 2022-2023’s steep interest rate hikes were still percolating through the economy, and high overall price levels were expected to crimp consumer spending.

The theory and philosophy around taxation sometimes starts with the US Supreme Court’s distinction between “avoidance” and “evasion.” No American is obligated to pay more than what is required. Measures taken to avoid tax within the rules are fine; measures taken to defeat the rules—evasion—are criminal.