Perspectives

This digital archive includes articles from Woodstock’s Quarterly Market Perspectives (QMP) along with additional commentary and analysis from the Woodstock team.

At the end of 2024, “global household wealth surged again to a record $310 trillion.” “North America still commands about half of all global household financial assets and more than half of asset growth in 2024.” The value of US stock markets was approximately $64 trillion at the end of 2025. Of course, “households” own only a part of that. Woodstock deals almost exclusively with households, so that is our focus.
Obesity and diabetes are serious metabolic diseases with pronounced comorbidities that have substantial personal and economic costs. The latter include the untoward downstream consequences of heart disease and a host of chronic diseases. All these contribute to higher rates of early mortality and high benefits expenses as well as reduced economic productivity.
The US economy continues to be resilient! Inflation has moderated from its highs but is sticking in the upper 2’s. Unemployment is creeping up but still healthy from a historical perspective—50,000 monthly job adds is the new breakeven number. And gross domestic product (GDP) is unequivocally strong, reaccelerating in the back half of 2025. The stock market is humming along; any dips get filled, quickly. The S&P 500 was up 86% cumulatively between 2023 and 2025. Another low double-digit increase in 2026 and the market will have doubled in four years! So, there’s ample reason to be bullish on US equities, in part due to the macro numbers but primarily because of the enormous potential of emerging technologies.
What makes Woodstock work well? In my view, there are five principal factors which make Woodstock’s investment management proposition unique. This may sound familiar, but foremost it is our people and their service orientation. Clients and portfolio managers get a high level of support from our sister company, Woodstock Services. They are responsive to customer questions and requests, and navigate the bureaucracy, enabling our portfolio managers to focus on more complex client issues, stock analysis, and portfolio maintenance.
Some investors who remember the harsh, dramatic stock market downturns of 2000 and 2008 may fear that we are on the precipice of a third downturn, driven by excessive enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. The AI investment cycle resembles the dot-com internet bubble of 2000 in that there is a massive buildout of infrastructure based on the hopes of a new technology. AI looks to be at least as revolutionary as the internet in changing our daily lives and our economy. The current market is less comparable to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, when a speculative bubble in house prices, spurred on by lax lending standards, brought down a much larger part of the economy.
Because the US tax code has been consistently used by both parties to further political/social priorities, it is good to remember that its basic purpose is to raise money. We agree that the “art of taxation” is akin to “plucking the goose” to obtain maximum revenue (“feathers”) from citizens with minimal complaint (“hissing”).[1] It helps that process if government expenditures are kept in a reasonable range. From the taxpayer’s point of view the key difference to keep in mind is between “avoidance” (arranging your affairs so as to pay as little tax as possible) and “evasion” (which is illegal).
Being sent on a “fool’s errand” means being asked to do something again that did not work at least once before. The financial press and Wall Street are suggesting that US investors look to Europe and the world to diversify and prosper.[1] One author’s vehicle of choice is the MSCI-World Index. Funds that mimic this index own 1,320 stocks and, by weight, are 72% US companies. Four other countries—Japan, the UK, Canada and France—make up 15%, leaving 13% for the rest of the world. However, the real problem is what the rest of the world’s indexes are made up of. In the US S&P 500, the finance sector makes up 13% of the index. For the MSCI World Index, the finance sector makes up 17%, which means that for the world ex the US, the finance sector is approximately 29 percent. This approaches 40% in some country indexes. In the heavily regulated US, the old-line bank and finance companies carry very high leverage and are considered, at Woodstock, risky. Imagine that sector in the world ex US with less regulation. It is a problem waiting to happen.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the US was up 3.8% for the second quarter, a strong rebound from the negative 0.6% in the first quarter.[1] This was driven by a 29.3% decline in imports (following a 38% surge in Q1) and resilient consumer spending (which makes up 68% of GDP). The strength of imports in Q1 and consumer spending in Q2 may have been reactions to proposed tariff policy and front-loading imports and purchases to stay ahead of price increases. The positive GDP growth, consumer spending patterns and capital expenditure cycle associated with cloud data centers and artificial intelligence (AI) have spawned positive earnings reports and guidance for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.
High-tax states are challenging moves by high earners and high net worth individuals who are moving out of their states to avoid higher tax rates. Taxpayers should remember that citizens always have the right to design their affairs to pay as little tax as possible. This is avoidance.
In the universe of investment management firms similar to Woodstock, we were an early adopter of the Global Investment Performance Standard (“GIPS”). We decided to have a large composite be our flagship:[1] our Growth Composite, which has covered over 80% of assets under management at Woodstock for 20 years. Clients included in the Growth Composite range from grandparents to grandchildren and include those drawing from their account and those accumulating. Most are taxable accounts. On June 30, 2025, we reached 20 years of performance recording under GIPS.

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